The Intel

Distressing numbers are rising on multiple fronts: spiralling inflation, military attacks on civilians, village burnings, climate change impacts. Major challenges in Myanmar include the internal displacement of 2.8 million people and the need to provide humanitarian assistance to 18.6 million, as reported by UNICEF Myanmar Country Office. Reaching those in need is a further obstacle. The UN Special Envoy’s efforts must prioritise delivering aid through both official channels (even if negotiating with the military government is extremely difficult) and through innovative channels such as neighbouring countries and are as controlled by ethnic resistance groups.

The UN Special Envoy can play a very important role in raising international awareness of Myanmar humanitarian aid's significant underfunding, with current support amounting to only 10 % of funding needs. The Envoy should also advocate that foreign countries stop selling weapons, advanced missiles, fighter jets, and other equipment to Myanmar military to prevent them being using them on civilians and to pressure them to enter peaceful negotiation.

Civil society organisations in Myanmar emerged to provide services even before the democratic transition efforts that began before 2010, and they continue to support armed resistance, social service provision as an alternative to the state. They have been more inclusive and resilient than any state or local government. Coordinated international efforts should focus on strengthening the capacity, accountability, and capability of civil society organisations across Myanmar to reach to the poorest and most impacted and least accessible parts of the country and to complement the state in the future return to civilian rule.

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The task presented to the new UN Special Envoy to Myanmar is seemingly impossible, but there are a few things the special envoy can focus on. 

The first is the expansion of humanitarian support which remains vital but operationally challenging. Myanmar CSOs and international aid organisations working within, and outside Myanmar are ready to respond but need operational space and protection to do so, in both State Administration Council (SAC) Controlled areas and areas controlled by different opposition groups. Ms. Bishop should present herself as an ally to such organisations and build on other diplomatic efforts on the topic, such as that being led by Alounkeo Kittikhoun, the current ASEAN special envoy.  

The gendered impacts of coups and conflict continue to require more attention. Women’s rights organisations and activists have documented the rise in gender-based violence (GBV) against women, girls, LGBTQI individuals, and communities. The justice system for GBV prevention and response, which was already lacking but being strengthened prior to the coup, has been severely disrupted. Many women’s rights organisations are working to fill this gap but are limited in resources and reach. The Envoy can serve as a powerful champion to increase attention and channel resources to support women’s rights organisations in their work.

The envoy is uniquely positioned to push for resettlement of individuals and families fleeing Myanmar. Such support can include advocating for an increase in offshore humanitarian visa intake from Myanmar refugees for coming years. Especially in Australia, where she has networks and influence, but also in countries like Thailand that are not signatory to the Refugee Convention but first destinations for many people trying to leave Myanmar.

Finally, Ms. Bishop should continue to advocate for the immediate release of all political prisoners which is reported to have reached 27234 according to Assistance Association For Political Prisoners (Burma).

When we asked this question to people in our network, the most common response was a shrug of the shoulders and a sympathetic ‘Good luck!’ Myanmar has long been a ‘diplomatic graveyard’ and there is little reason to think that, at a time of such zero-sum tensions, a new Special Envoy can meaningfully intervene politically in Myanmar. That does not mean Julie Bishop should not try, however. 

With an expansion of armed groups across Myanmar, a competitive authoritarian power dynamic may grow, leading to increased human rights abuses and jeopardising stability. Viable actions related to Resolution 2669 and a reassessment of ASEAN's five-point consensus approach are crucial. Pushing the State Administration Council (SAC) for the immediate release of political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, U Win Myint, and media professionals, is also important (though unlikely to be successful).

Where the new Special Envoy can potentially influence more is in mobilising the international community to continue to respond to the humanitarian crisis, which is at risk of losing international attention. But there is a crucial paradox. If new resources are mobilised, UN and international agencies will line up fast to receive it, but these agencies often can’t implement the programs themselves, as they don’t have access. Funds are therefore often subcontracted to local Myanmar humanitarian organisations who do the bulk of the implementation in the neediest areas.

Myanmar organisations (both inside and outside SAC controlled areas) end up doing most of the work, but have relatively little influence on aid systems. The Special Envoy could helpfully play a role in promoting the decision-making role of, and direct funding to, Myanmar organisations. But this is not easy as it cuts against the deep vested interests of UN agencies and international NGOs. Julie Bishop might need some luck in influencing that too!