What do Timorese experts think about Australia’s development program? To find out, the Lab spoke to 40+ top development and foreign policy experts. Here’s what we found.
A short guide to the Pulse Check x Timor-Leste for policymakers
There are a number of big disruptions underway, and these will drastically affect development in every country.
You have 100 points. Allocate your points according to which of the below disruptions are most critical to address in your country.
Things like: the impact on livelihoods, infrastructure and people’s quality of life as the climate changes, the global push to reach net zero and beyond, biodiversity health and resource usage, disaster resilience
Things like: competing powers and their impact on things like trade and economic growth.
Things like: the rapidly growing digital and data economy, and the rise of artificial intelligence and advanced autonomous systems.
Things like: shifting demographics across age, education and healthcare, and rising inequality, gender equality, disability inclusion.
Things like: rapidly changing markets, trade conditions, stability and resilience to shocks, changing job opportunities and emerging industries.
Things like: shifting international norms and state structures, effective functions of the state, and disruptions to the international rules based order.
Things like: global stability and instability, internal conflict, humanitarian crises, external interference, maritime disputes.
Pulse Check participants ranked climate change as the greatest disruption to development in Timor-Leste, ahead of geopolitical tensions and shifting economic dimensions. Participants cited an increased frequency of flooding and droughts hurting agricultural productivity and deepening poverty, particularly in rural areas. These participants want to see more Government of Timor-Leste and development partner action to address the impacts of climate change, especially where it is already directly affecting livelihoods. Some also highlighted the difficulty in accurately gauging the economic impact of loss and damage, something they see as critical to establishing better policy responses to climate change going forwards.
Participants see geopolitical shifts and tensions as the second-greatest disruption to development for two main reasons. Firstly, global conflicts impacting markets and supply chains have an outsized effect on the economy, given the country’s high dependence on imported food and other commodities. Many participants highlighted how these effects are felt at home, especially by Timor-Leste’s poorest communities.
Secondly, participants see domestic political instability and power struggles as an impediment to governance continuity and effective policymaking, resulting in uncertainty and inefficiency that has the potential to expose the nation to adverse geopolitical influence. Due to its reliance on imports and limited local production, the economy is susceptible to international market fluctuations.
In addition to concerns regarding the influence of global market trends on the economy, many participants spoke to limited economic diversification which they regard as causing an undue dependency on the Petroleum Fund. They see this as limiting opportunities for more sustainable long-term growth.
Additionally, participants identified challenges in economic management and policy implementation as contributing to ongoing economic insecurity, obstructing progress toward self-sufficiency and economic resilience. They want to see this addressed by their state, with support from development partners like Australia.
When compared to the disruption posed by climate change, geopolitical competition and economic growth, Pulse Check participants saw disruptions like shifting state structures, conflict and instability as a relatively lower-order issue. In a post-conflict state like Timor-Leste, this is a notable finding. However, participants did cite underlying social unrest and ongoing political tensions as key factors that remain vulnerabilities in Timor-Leste’s development. They recognised that stability should not be taken for granted, particularly citing the need for ongoing work in critical areas of effective governance and civic space.
We know that to achieve social and economic development, an effective and accountable state is critical - and this is something that Australia is committed to working with partners on.
You have 100 points. Allocate your points according to where you would focus efforts to enhance social and economic development in your country, using the State Effectiveness Framework.
For example, commercial policy, private sector development, intervention by the state when the market experiences failure or crisis.
For example, a balanced security environment, when police, military and other security institutions are bound by the law and guidelines.
For example, public utilities - including water, electricity and roads.
For example, strong adherence to both formal and informal rules, high levels of predictability and stability of the enforcement of rules, and governance arrangements.
For example, investment in the citizens of a state through education and public health.
For example, strong and transparent forms of public financial management, effective public borrowing, and fiscal management.
For example, addressing barriers to equal opportunities through citizens rights which cut across gender, race, ethnicity, religion, class and location.
For example, state assets (including natural resources [water, land, the environment, extractives] and other intangible benefits [licenses and permits]).
For example, preparedness for disasters, state resiliency against crises such as drought, famine, and catastrophic weather.
For example, public sector management, uniform rules and guidelines, strong reforms to prevent corruption.
Changing demographics, including a growing youth segment, paired with what some consider a lacklustre state investment in skill building and economic diversification, is seen by many as a perfect storm for missing opportunities to enhance social and economic development in Timor-Leste. Participants want to see state capacity bolstered to enhance education and public health services across the country. Time and again, these participants emphasised that investing in human capital is the most sustainable pathway to development and should be the number one focus of their state.
This desire to see increased investment in the health, education and skills of Timor-Leste’s people – first and foremost – is reflected not only in participant rankings for this question, but so too in their preferences to connect with Australia on livelihoods (Question 3), and to see Australia bolster its support to the education, agriculture and health sectors (Question 4).
Participants highlight the need for roads, electricity, and water supply to drive economic development, as they see improving infrastructure is essential for facilitating economic activities, tourism, and market connectivity. They also stress the inadequacy of attention to educational and health infrastructure in the Timorese state budget, which hinders human wellbeing and development. Furthermore, respondents are also concerned about disparities in infrastructure development between urban and rural areas.
Participants see tackling grand corruption, enhancing political accountability, and promoting more effective public sector management, public finance, and budgeting, as the top areas in which to focus governance efforts.
Despite citizen engagement ranking as a relatively lower-order priority for state effectiveness, the lack of civil participation in policymaking processes was highlighted as an issue with state governance that should also be strengthened.
Some participants expressed optimism about a changing of the guard within Timor-Leste’s political leadership. But while some are optimistic about a new generation of leaders advancing, others are keeping a watchful eye on the stability of the state through this period.
Participants advocate for policies to facilitate market participation and ensure fair pricing. They emphasise the importance of improving market facilities and distribution networks, and supporting businesses to enter the formal economy, especially in rural areas. Strengthening access to finance for businesses, particularly micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), is also seen crucial for competing in the global market.
Australia's new development policy wants to foster connection between your country and ours. How is this best done within development?
You have 100 points. Allocate your points according to where you think efforts are best placed to bring our countries together through development cooperation.
Support from Australia to back your country's aspirations on things like gender equality, health assistance, rural development and education.
Support from Australia to back your country's aspirations on things like trade, market growth, regulatory reform, small-to-medium enterprise (SME) development and development finance.
Support from Australia to back your country's aspirations on things like peace and security, effective governance, food security, digital and cyber security, law and justice.
Support from Australia to back your country's aspirations on things like remittances, labour mobility, job creation, social and economic policy reform.
Support from Australia to back your country's aspirations on things like scholarships, policy dialogue, cultural exchange and institutional partnerships.
Support from Australia to back your country's aspirations on things like climate adaptation and mitigation, global health crises, transnational crime, joint cooperation in regional and multilateral fora, unregulated migration flows and major demographic changes.
Connecting for social capital is considered the top priority for development cooperation between Australia and Timor-Leste. Participants want to see Australia backing the country’s practices and aspirations on things like gender equality, disability and social inclusion, and rural development, but also on strengthening community and civil society involvement in development initiatives and policymaking.
Some highlighted the significance of Australia situating this kind of connectivity with social knowledge and practices that already exist in Timor-Leste, and bolstering the primacy of these within development cooperation.
When it comes to connecting for livelihoods, participants see employment opportunities, especially in rural areas and for women and young people, as the top priority for development cooperation. Some also saw this as an opportunity for bolstering local entrepreneurship in light of Timor-Leste’s increasingly young population.
Although many participants expressed support for Australia’s Seasonal Worker Program and the Pacific Engagement Visa for the remittances they generate, some participants also expressed concern about their potential impact on the local labour market. Some participants suggested balancing this concern with supporting in-country livelihoods solutions, including support for entrepreneurship and small business development, enhancing skills training and vocational education, and promoting economic diversification.
Despite being in a post-conflict context, participants did not see working on stability and security as a relative priority for Timor-Leste and Australia’s development cooperation when compared to working on things like bolstering social capital and livelihoods.
Some participants did express concern about the potential for internal conflict to arise as a result of a major transition of political leadership, or major economic shocks should the state fail to safeguard against the approaching fiscal cliff. However, development cooperation focused on empowering people and enhancing livelihoods is seen as the primary objective for these participants, and as a useful preventative measure against instability.
Australia works with your country through development cooperation in a variety of ways. What would you like to see here?
Australia's bilateral ODA allocation to the Timor-Leste for FY 2023-2024 is $79.1 million. You have 100 points. How would you re-allocate Australia's bilateral funding to Timor-Leste across these categories using your 100 points?
Including policy and research to support economic growth, emerging industries and job markets, banking and financial services.
Including transport and storage, larger water, communications.
Including agriculture, fisheries and forestry, industry and mining and mineral resources.
Including policy and enabling markets.
Including governance programming, policy reforms, civil society strengthening, social protection measure and infrastructure.
Including support for feminist organisations and movements, support for disability organisations and services.
Including basic, secondary and higher education and scholarships.
Including basic health, infrastructure and basic water and sanitation.
Including climate mitigation and adaptation, energy infrastructure, environmental protection and management.
Including emergency response, disaster prevention and preparedness .
Participants want the highest allocation of Australia development assistance to be directed toward education. Many emphasised the need for ongoing support to achieve universal basic education, and continuing support for tertiary education through scholarships, and the importance of making better progress addressing gender and disability inclusivity at all levels. Others spoke to potential synergies with Australia’s other areas of investment, such as in educational infrastructure.
Regardless of the focus, many participants were keen to see donors like Australia work in the sector with a continued focus on long-term sustainability and alignment with national development goals.
Agriculture is the sector in which participants would like to see the second-highest allocation of ODA, with a specific focus on increasing local food production to achieve food security and reduce dependence on imports, as well as addressing the impact climate change is having on food systems. Participants also expressed an interest in greater collaboration with Australia on agricultural research to modernise and industrialise agricultural production, improve agricultural services and market access, enhance irrigation systems, train farmers for better productivity, promote sustainable farming practices, and build resilience to climate change.
When it comes to development assistance in the health sector, participants were keen to see Australia work on things like health infrastructure, including facilities, equipment, and training for medical professionals. Other welcome areas for Australian assistance included: strengthening community healthcare services, supporting increased access to essential medicines and preventive care, and working on sexual and reproductive health.
“Fellow women who work as sex workers need medications to be able to keep them safe.”
According to this group of experts, Australia’s assistance could also be channelled through collaborative health research to address emerging or persistent public health challenges, improve healthcare delivery, and achieve better public health outcomes, such as improving children's nutrition and disease prevention through education, awareness, and access to medications.
Participants want to see support in promoting transparency and accountability in governance processes, including budgeting, policymaking, and service delivery. Many were particularly keen for Australia to play a greater role as a broker between the state and civil society, fostering space for greater civic participation in policymaking.
Key governance-related initiatives that these experts propose include: sharing practices for government officials, civil servants, and community leaders to improve governance effectiveness and efficiency; supporting civil society organisations to play a more active role in governance through monitoring, advocacy, and community engagement; and providing support for legal aid services to ensure access to justice, particularly for marginalised groups, and promoting the rule of law and human rights.
“Addressing corruption in all sectors is a critical imperative for Timor-Leste’s good governance and economic development.”
Climate adaptation emerged as a relatively low priority sector for these participants, despite climate change being ranked the top disruption facing Timor-Leste. Many participants saw mainstreaming climate activities as the more effective pathway for working on climate adaptation. This was particularly prevalent for sectors like agriculture and infrastructure.
Alongside what is included in Australia's development cooperation with your country, we're interested in your views on how Australia delivers assistance.
You have 100 points. Allocate your points according to where you think Australia should focus to become a great development partner to your country.
Working in selective sectors where Australia can best assist your country, and doing it well. Perhaps operating in a less visible way, and much more impact-oriented.
Working at the forefront of development challenges and working with partners to get ahead of big, new challenges to development. Developing specific capabilities in response to development disruptions decades ahead.
Working with partners to leverage Australian expertise, and knowledge, and working with your country's knowledge ecosystem to solve the most difficult development challenges.
Connected to your communities, not just your Government. Australia as a whole-of-nation partner that connects across different levels: for example universities, businesses, and organisations. Squarely focused on delivering development outcomes for people and communities.
Working to back Australia's development partner's aspirations through things like ASEAN, multilateral arenas, and through bilateral arrangements.
Participants underscore the need for a partnership built at the community level that recognises the complex history between the two countries, but that also acknowledges as close neighbours, partnership with Australia is a permanent fixture in Timor-Leste’s development and foreign policy.
Participants see stronger ties not only at the government-to-government level, but across business, academia, and civil society in pursuit of sustainable development, as one of the most important practices that safeguards bilateral relationships when diplomatic disputes arise.
Others expressed an interest in seeing a partner like Australia operating more effectively as a convenor between state and non-state actors, and other donors, especially on issues that the state is less able or willing to address.
Participants who favoured the runner-up partnership model of Australia, Technical Experts, saw greater opportunities for Timor-Leste to leverage Australia’s knowledge ecosystem in a handful of sectors like agriculture and fisheries, education, and science. For some, this also included things like navigating newly minted World Trade Organisation membership, or supporting the country’s capacity to process oil onshore.
While the desired focus of technical expertise partnerships differed, most participants were in agreement that they should focus on cooperation that recognises and builds on the strengths of existing knowledge systems in country, and that are focused on enhancing the impact of development initiatives.
Few participants expressed any preference for a partnership model based on Australia working to strengthen regional architecture. Most participants did not see this as the best avenue to position Australia as a partner of choice, despite the fact that Australia is working to support Timor-Leste’s integration and membership with ASEAN.
