A web of megatrends is changing the face of development. Their interconnectedness means we need a more sophisticated capability to see what’s coming, and plan accordingly.
The last five years have brought a convergence of development challenges — from abstract to urgent — on an unprecedented scale of difficulty. Our ability to plan for, and respond appropriately to, these megatrends will make or break the success of the new policy.
What do these future, more complex challenges look like?
The new development policy process is unfolding at a time when social norms and values are being significantly disrupted. This means grappling with how the rising need for decolonising and localising aid will drastically shift the financial flows, practice, and ideology of development in the coming decade.
The policy will target a region where climate change is the ‘single greatest threat’ to livelihoods, the environment, health, and security. This means grappling with the direct multiplier effect that climate change has on existing poverty and inequality, the social and political upheaval caused by the stresses of climate crises, and the pressure for Australia to better address its domestic emissions to be a credible partner in the region.
Geopolitical tensions and shifts in global power are underpinning international relations in the Indo-Pacific and development that is not attuned to geopolitical tensions is unlikely to be effective. This means grappling with increasing concerns that China’s influence has become a dominant prism through which Australia views foreign policy, and the effect that declines in democratic governance have for human rights.
The new policy must also withstand a landscape that is rapidly changing due to the extreme uptake and advancement of technology. This is causing a swift evolution of global connectivity and quickly changing the needs of partner nations. This means grappling with the threat that cybercrime poses for effective governance, the rise in misinformation, and the opportunity to invest in digital infrastructure.
What do we do about it?
At the Lab, we see a critical need to develop more sophisticated capabilities to identify, understand, and sufficiently respond to these megatrends. To do so, the Lab recommends two interlinked courses of action.
One, establish an open-source development foresight capability funded by the department and/or intelligence agencies. This could look like an interdisciplinary unit that releases assessments, analyses trends and guides the development program on how it should approach and pivot to development challenges in real time.
Two, capitalise on the development ecosystem that exists both within Australia and the region. This could look like finding new ways to glean expertise from different institutions (academia, delivery partners, think tanks), establishing knowledge transfer pathways to and through Government (for example, secondment programs, Chatham House-style dialogues), and public communications to signal the changing priorities and needs of Government, including with respect to research and policy.