Our Analysis

How geostrategic competition and fragility interact

October 2024

At the Lab, we’ve been keeping an eye on a dynamic that is emerging in some low- and middle-income countries in the Indo-Pacific: the interaction between geostrategic competition and fragility.

In this brief, we find:

- Geostrategic competition is exacerbating certain facets of fragility in low-and middle-income states, and that fragility is enabling and accelerating said competition.

- This dynamic risks undermining the effectiveness of Australian statecraft (including development assistance) in contexts where the imperative to compete demands a primary focus on responding to the symptoms of fragility, rather than its root causes.

- To realise its vision of a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific, Australia could better balance its short and long term focus, build resilience to corrosive aspects of geostrategic competition, and ensure coherence as it competes.

The question we are left with is: how can Australia widen the focus of its development program and broader foreign policy to better deal with the underlying drivers of fragility? And does it have what it takes?

Heather Murphy
Heather Murphy
Head of Analysis and Engagement
Bridi Rice
Bridi Rice
CEO
Martina Zapf
Martina Zapf
General Manager

How geostrategic competition and fragility interact

How geostrategic competition and fragility interactHow geostrategic competition and fragility interact

How geostrategic competition and fragility interact

How geostrategic competition and fragility interact